Archer 2nd Quarter 2024 Outlook
April 4, 2024
“The punishment of wise men who refuse to take part in the affairs of government is to live under the government of unwise men.” – Plato
With the S&P 500 gaining 10.16% in the first quarter, the market has shaken off the political doldrums that usually come with a Presidential election year. In the annual newsletter we said for the market to move higher, corporate profits would have to move higher. We also said lower rates should make corporations more profitable as they can borrow for less and save money. However...
Archer 2024 Annual Outlook
January 4, 2024
In the last newsletter, we said for the market to move higher, corporate profits would have to move higher. We have stated this many times over the years, regardless of the headline news. We also said, lower rates should make corporations more profitable as they can borrow for less and save money. In the 4th Quarter of 2023, we saw interest rates finally subside as the Federal Reserve has been able to navigate the storm of inflation...
Archer 4th Quarter 2023 Outlook
October 1, 2023
Summer is over, and as we jump into fall, the market seems to be faltering a bit. You may want to know why, and will it continue? We need to discuss the first part, which is why. The Fed has continued to raise rates to offset the prospects of inflation. Inflation, although looks to be in check, is probably moving a bit higher this quarter with a rise in oil prices and at the gas pump...
Archer 3rd Quarter 2023 Outlook
July 8, 2023
As we are sitting in Pensacola at the start of the quarter celebrating the 4th of July and watching the Blue Angels pull off the most unbelievable feats that you only thought were in the movies, it gives us a look into real talent. I am not sure Washington can pull off the same feats when it comes to our economy and inflation...
Archer 2nd Quarter 2023 Outlook
April 6, 2023
Where is the recession? We heard it was coming at the end of 2022 and then early 2023, and now one of the research groups recently reported it would be early 2024. A broken clock is right twice a day. Is a recession coming? The answer is yes, although no one knows exactly when it will happen...
Archer 2023 Annual Outlook
January 4, 2023
Inflation is the name of the game in 2023. Many were certainly hoping inflation would come back in check based on the call, “inflation is only transitory”. Clearly, the experts were wrong. We printed so much currency as a country, the FED can not get it out of your pockets fast enough...
Archer 2022 Q4 Outlook
September 30, 2022
In our last update we said the Bear is awake again. The bear is not only awake, but he is causing havoc in the woods we all like to enjoy. It is not a surprise the bear feels this way, we have created a forest of plentiful berries and everyone has plenty of money to go and find these berries, which we will now call inflation...
Archer June 2022 Special Update
June 21, 2022
We were hoping to wait until the June 30 date to put out our outlook and update, but the bear keeps growling so we thought we may provide some perspective of the markets and what we can expect in the days, months, and years ahead.
After an injection of roughly $12 Trillion in stimulus to support the economy and spur recovery from lockdowns, it should come as no surprise that inflation has...
Archer May 2022 Special Update
May 6, 2022
The stock market is volatile and interest rates are rising. The S&P 500 as this is written is down nearly 13% and the Aggregate bond market is down 10%. At first glance this gives us all pause and puts some scare into opening our quarterly and monthly investment statements. However, let’s put this into perspective. The S&P 500 which is the largest 500 stocks in the United States were up over 50% the last few years.
Archer February 28, 2022 Update
February 28, 2022
The Invasion of Ukraine by Russia is beginning to affect the markets:
These are difficult times with world tensions running high. War is not a simple problem, nor is there a simple solution and it often creates havoc and discourse throughout the world...
Archer January 24, 2022 Update
January 24th, 2022
January has been a difficult month for the stock market. We have gone from a blistering 2021 with returns easily in the double digits for most equity asset classes, to a January 2022 that has dropped prices by more than 10% and in some cases getting close to 20%. Often, when the market drops like this, investors get pessimistic about the stock market and want to reign in their...
Archer 2022 Annual Outlook
January 5th, 2022
Much like the cartoon above, we are often warned about the political gridlock in Washington creating a potential economic disaster. However, it could not be further from the truth. It is actually more the norm than the exception. As we enter 2022 with hopes of more normalization, we must accept the fact COVID is here for another year at least. The difference is how we will learn to live with it. As far as politics go, we expect more...
Archer 4th Quarter 2021 Outlook
October 7th, 2021
“Inflation is taxation without legislation.” – Milton Friedman
The cartoon may have caught your attention, but I want to use it to explain what is happening and what is likely to happen in the market. We all know by this point that the Federal Government has begged, borrowed, and stolen to “juice” up the market. Whether you felt this was necessary during the pandemic or not, there are consequences to all of the spending in Washington. Our national debt...
Archer 3rd Quarter 2021 Outlook
July 7th, 2021
“Nothing gives one person so much advantage over another as to remain always cool and unruffled under all circumstances.” – Thomas Jefferson
Sunday, July 4th, marked the 245th commemoration of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence. Since then, the country has grown from 13 colonies and roughly 2.5 million people to 50 states and 14 territories with a population that exceeds 330 million. The economy has swelled to almost $21 trillion and economic output per person has risen by a factor of 30. Advances in public health have cut the child mortality rate from more than 45% to under 1%. More than 200 million people have at least finished high school, compared to 18 million in 1940. We’ve built...
Archer 2nd Quarter 2021 Outlook
April 8th, 2021
“There are two kinds of people who lose money: those who know nothing and those who know everything.” – Henry Kaufman
When looking at the stock market, we often look at earnings first and the stock market second. The reason is that the price of the market long-term is predicated by the earnings of the stock market. If companies were making zero dollars and forecasted to make zero dollars, then no one would invest in that company. If you look at the chart below, you will see the earnings and the expected earnings of the S&P 500, which is the 500 companies that make up the index that many people follow...
Archer 2021 Annual Outlook
January 6th, 2021
“Liberals have practiced tax and tax, spend and spend, elect and elect, but conservatives have perfected borrow and borrow, spend and spend, elect and elect.” – George Will (American political journalist, b. 1941)
The election has been completed and will begin to move into the rearview mirror. It appears that we will have a new President and likely a Democratic Congress. This may be exciting for some and create a sense of dire worry for others. We would like to dispel some of the myths of stock market returns with a Democrat Executive office combined with a Democrat controlled Congress. Remember, nearly all of the members of Congress have money invested in the stock market and real assets such as homes, vacation homes, etc. Like most, they want their assets and wealth to...